Ovens Valley, or Murray Valley before 2014, has been a safe Nationals seat for the past 81 years.
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Now a young Yarrawonga community worker, running for One Nation, plans to a have red hot crack at unseating MP Tim McCurdy.
James Rouel is well-known around Yarrawonga for his work as Moira Foodshare coordinator.
Mr McCurdy is a popular local member, and both men sense a desire for change.
Mr McCurdy says Victorians have had enough of the Labor Government, and Mr Rouel says the support he’s getting across the electorate continues to shock him every day.
But is it enough for an upset, or will Mr McCurdy find himself in government for the first time in his political career?
To date, there are three more candidates nominated for the seat - Community Independent, Steve Manning; Greens, Ben Gilbert, and Libertarian, Julian Fidge, however it is fair to say they are unlikely to influence the result.
Ovens Valley is the kind of rural electorate, deeply rooted in conservative values, that One Nation is targeting, and for the first time, voters are questioning whether change is possible here.
Mr Rouel grew up in Yarrawonga where he was a student at Yarrawonga College P-12.
He says at 18, he couldn’t wait to leave and at 28, he couldn’t wait to come back.
“I had to go and find myself, find my job, and find me,” Mr Rouel said.
He moved away to attend university in Bendigo, which he says is the jewel in the regional Victorian crown, with 24 train services to Melbourne every day, a brand-new hospital, universities, and “everything at your fingertips”.
“You don’t understand how lucky you are, and then you move back here and go ‘what the hell’,” he said.
“That’s due to it being a marginal seat, Labor held.”
Ovens Valley has been a safe Nationals seat for 81 years, or 24 elections.
Mr McCurdy has held the seat since 2010; at the last election in 2022 he won the seat with 52.13 per cent of primary votes (73.1 per cent in Bundalong).
Mr Rouel said for the past 12 months people had been suggesting he give politics a shot.
“I figured I'm already advocating for food security, and it would be pretty cool to advocate for, not just food security, but roads, education, health; everything that we have to beg, fight, and scrap for our fair share,” he said.
“Through my work, I have talked to many parties; Liberal, Labor, Nationals, Greens, Animal Justice Party, right across the board.
“All of them have been really happy to come out and get a photo and talk the talk, but only one of them actually walked the walk and secured us some funding.”
That politician was One Nation senator, Ricki Lee Tyrell, and Mr Rouel says it was his first real eye-opener that (One Nation) cared about regional Victoria.
“She was able to do that with just one person in a parliament with no other party members, no other support,” he said.
“I think I saw more fight in that person than I've seen since I've been back (in Yarrawonga).”
Not all of Mr Rouel’s views are consistent with those of his party’s leader.
He described Pauline Hanson’s assertion that “there’s no such thing as a good Muslim” as “crazy”.
While he supports the party’s policy “in principle” of capping net overseas migration, he says he’s less sure in practice.
He is quick to say that immigration is Federal policy, but one with ramifications for Ovens Valley’s agriculture intensive base, and for regional health and said “100 per cent” that without immigrant workers, the aged care system would collapse.
“I’m no climate denier; the climate is changing, it’s getting hotter, it's getting drier,” Mr Rouel said.
“But from my lived experience, I see people every day, every single day, struggle to put food on the table.
“The amount of people who line up for food, every single morning, is staggering.
“The number of pensioners who don't put their heaters on at night … so my concern mostly is about getting the price of power down.
“I believe we need to open the market … whether it's coal, whether it is renewables, whether it is nuclear, whatever it is, I don't care what it is, as long as we get the price down.
“I’m absolutely open to the idea of nuclear power .... but something I was probably naive about is the prime production land being taken up by solar and battery farms.
“The policy we are taking to the Victorian election is that prime producing land can be legislated to only be prime producing land.”
The true size of the One Nation vote, and the extent of the perceived backlash against the Labor government in Victoria will be revealed on November 28.
Whatever the outcome, Mr Rouel says he’s going to “give it a shot, a really good shot”.
“I’m going to look back and say I've tried my absolute hardest,” he said.