CCTV footage shows a white ute reversing into The Boss Tobacconist at Melton in Melbourne's outer northwest in the early hours of Thursday before two men exited with jerry cans.
Seconds later, a ball of flames engulfed the pair.
One of the men was still on fire as he entered the ute and fell out onto the road as it drove off, leaving him behind.
The 23-year-old was flown to Melbourne's Alfred Hospital, where he remains in a critical condition.
"Life as he knows it will never be the same," Detective Inspector Chris Murray told reporters on Thursday afternoon.
"His so-called mate left him for dead. No care, no concern. A matter of saving his own skin."
Burnt clothing, including a single Nike shoe, could be seen in the carpark earlier on Thursday.
Det Insp Murray would not reveal the percentage of burns to the man's body but described his injuries as "catastrophic".
"You couldn't think of a worse way to be injured," the Arson and Explosives Squad boss said.
"It's going to be touch and go."
The ute was later found on fire in Hopetoun Park, about 9km away, and has been seized for forensic testing.
The second man, who was also burned, was picked up by a good Samaritan and dropped off in the vicinity of the Avenue of Honour about 3.30am.
"If (the good Samaritan) knew that he left his mate to die, he would have kept going," Det Insp Murray said.
Det Insp Murray indicated the second man would be caught and likely charged with arson causing death if his associate did not survive.
"We intend to make it all about him and make him personally accountable," he said.
Police are also looking for the driver of a silver ute that might have been driving in convoy with the white ute.Â
There have been more than 150 tobacco store fires in Victoria since March 2023 and Det Insp Murray was confident the latest attack was linked to organised crime.
"There's clearly a reason that this has occurred - be that standover, be that retribution, be that revenge, be it power player," he said.
In a method used throughout Victoria's tobacco wars, youths have been paid as little as a few hundred dollars to carry out the dirty work of anonymous crooks.
Det Insp Murray suspected the pair were hired for the job.
"I hope this resonates with some of those youth that are considering doing this," he said.
"We've had deaths, we've had serious injuries. It's just madness."
The Gang Crime Squad, formerly Taskforce Lunar, has executed more than 350 raids and made at least 212 arrests for offences linked to crime groups involved in the illegal tobacco trade.
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